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The Week Ahead





Monday

– German trade balance (May): surplus forecast to fall to €15.9 billion. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

Tuesday
– Australia NAB business confidence (June): index expected to fall to 3 from 7. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

Wednesday
– Australia Westpac consumer confidence (July): index to rise to 101. Markets to watch: AUD crosses

– China CPI (June): YoY inflation to be 1.8% from 2.7%, and MoM 0.2% from 0%. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

– UK GDP (May): growth to be 1.4% in May from 1.3%, while the three-month average bounces back, rising 0.4% from -0.4%. Markets to watch: GBP crosses

– US EIA crude inventories (w/e 5 July): stockpiles fell by 1.1 million barrels in the preceding week, and the decline is expected to accelerate, with a drop of 2.9 million barrels for the past week. Markets to watch: Brent, WTI

– FOMC minutes: the latest meeting was more dovish than expected, so these minutes might help to reveal more about the committee’s view. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Thursday

– German inflation (June, final): YoY CPI to be 1.4%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses

– US CPI (June), initial jobless claims (w/e 6 July): prices expected to rise 1.7% YoY from 1.8% and 0.1% MoM. Core CPI to rise 0.2% MoM and 2% YoY, from 0.1% and 2% respectively. Claims to fall to 209K from 221K. Markets to watch: US indices, USD crosses

Friday

– China trade balance (June): surplus to rise to $53 billion from $41.7 billion. Markets to watch: CNH crosses

- US PPI (June): factory-gate inflation to rise 0.1% MoM. Markets to watch: USD crosses

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