The Week Ahead
Monday
– German trade
balance (May): surplus forecast to fall to €15.9 billion. Markets
to watch: EUR crosses
Tuesday
– Australia NAB
business confidence (June): index expected to fall to 3 from 7.
Markets to watch: AUD crosses
Wednesday
– Australia Westpac
consumer confidence (July): index to rise to 101. Markets
to watch: AUD crosses
– China CPI (June):
YoY inflation to be 1.8% from 2.7%, and MoM 0.2% from 0%. Markets
to watch: CNH crosses
– UK GDP (May):
growth to be 1.4% in May from 1.3%, while the three-month average
bounces back, rising 0.4% from -0.4%. Markets
to watch: GBP crosses
– US EIA crude
inventories (w/e 5 July): stockpiles fell by 1.1 million barrels in
the preceding week, and the decline is expected to accelerate, with a
drop of 2.9 million barrels for the past week. Markets
to watch: Brent, WTI
– FOMC minutes: the
latest meeting was more dovish than expected, so these minutes might
help to reveal more about the committee’s view. Markets
to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Thursday
– German inflation
(June, final): YoY CPI to be 1.4%. Markets to watch: EUR crosses
– US CPI (June),
initial jobless claims (w/e 6 July): prices expected to rise 1.7% YoY
from 1.8% and 0.1% MoM. Core CPI to rise 0.2% MoM and 2% YoY, from
0.1% and 2% respectively. Claims to fall to 209K from 221K. Markets
to watch: US indices, USD crosses
Friday
– China trade
balance (June): surplus to rise to $53 billion from $41.7 billion.
Markets to watch: CNH crosses
- US PPI (June):
factory-gate inflation to rise 0.1% MoM. Markets
to watch: USD crosses
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